Non-Farm Payroll, Inflation, and Fed Decision

Non-Farm Data

Market participants focus on the upcoming U.S. labor data that is due on Friday, which is considered crucial for the Fed rate anticipations. The upcoming employment report is likely to show the tight labor market, to shift to more modest payroll growth.

The Non-farm figures are likely to increase by about 325,000, 103,000 less than the previous month. While still strong, the projected advance would be the smallest in over a year. In the meantime, the unemployment rate is seen falling to a pandemic low of 3.5%, and average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.4% from a month earlier. 

Markets currently are expecting the Fed to raise benchmark borrowing rates to a range between 2.5%-2.75%, in line with a neutral rate. However, if inflation continues to rise, the Fed likely will go even further. The fed funds rate currently is set between 0.75% and 1%.

Fed Decision

FOMC minutes also indicated that policymakers see rates rising by 50 basis points at the next several meetings. Waller said he is on board with that position, as the Fed seeks to tame inflation running close to its highest level in more than 40 years.

The U.S. Federal Reserve should be prepared to raise interest rates by a half percentage point at every meeting from now on until inflation is decisively curbed, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday, underscoring tensions at the central bank about how aggressively to tighten policy as it battles to bring down high inflation.

The Fed is under pressure to decisively make a dent in an inflation rate that is running more than three times its 2% goal and has caused a jump in the cost of living for Americans. It faces a difficult task in dampening demand in the economy enough to curb inflation while not causing a recession.