Gold Remains the First Safe Haven

market news summary

US Federal Reserve data showed that banks sought emergency liquidity in record amounts over the past few days following the collapse of Silicon Valley and Signature banks, which in turn led to the squandering of months-long efforts by the central bank to reduce the size of its balance sheet.

As of Wednesday, banks had accessed $152.9 billion, an all-time high, from the US central bank’s discount window, a traditional facility of last resort. It also obtained $11.9 billion in loans from the US Central Bank’s recently introduced term bank lending program. Discount window borrowing surpassed the previous record of $112 billion in the fall of 2008, during the worst of the financial crisis.

Goldman Sachs raised its estimates of a recession in the US economy over the next 12 months to 35%. In January, the US bank had set the same percentage as the possibility of a recession in the world’s largest economy, but in February, it reduced those estimates by about 10% to 25%, supported by gradually improved conditions in the jobs sector and confidence of the businesses.

Dollar index (USDX)

Even with serious attempts by the Fed and major banks to get out of the possibility of a new global crisis, the US dollar is still weak and within its downside trend. It is trading today below its important levels at $104.10.

Pivot Point: 104.10

Resistance level	Support level
104.35	103.85
104.65	103.60
105.15	103.10

Spot Gold (XAUUSD)

Gold prices fell from their highest level in 6 weeks at the settlement of Thursday’s trading session, the sixteenth of March, with the easing of concerns related to the banking sector.

Upon settlement, gold futures fell by 0.4%, or $8.3, to $1923 an ounce, but it soon rebounded after this correction, reaching again above $1930 an ounce, and this is within the general bullish trend that the yellow metal gained this week.

Gold prices rose over the past week, with the yellow metal benefiting from concerns about the stability of the European and US banking system.

Pivot Point: 1,920

Resistance level	Support level
1,932	1,906
1,945	1,893
1971	1,885

Dow Jones Index (DJ30ft – US30)

US indices rebounded in Thursday’s session, supported by a rebound in financial stocks, supported in turn by reports stating that major banks will deposit up to $30 billion in First Republic coffers to stabilize the troubled bank.

Banks also received support from the speech of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who confirmed that the US banking system remains sound and Americans can feel confident that their deposits will be available when needed.

The Dow Jones index rose by 1.2%, or the equivalent of 370 points, in Thursday’s session, supported by the rise in the technology index by 2.6% and the recovery of the financial sector index by 1.6%.

Pivot Point: 32265

Resistance level	Support level
32400	32050
32700	31800
33100	31535

US Crude oil (USOUSD)

Oil prices rose at the settlement of trading on Thursday, March 16th, after falling to a 15-month low last Wednesday and declining for 3 sessions.

Upon settlement, Brent crude futures rose by 1.4% to $74.70 a barrel, and US crude futures rose by 1.1%, recording $68.35 a barrel upon settlement.

Oil prices found support from gains in US stocks after a group of 11 banks agreed to support First Republic by depositing $30 billion in the US bank.

Pivot Point: 67.65

Resistance level	Support level
69.50	67.00
70.50	66.15
71.40	64.00